The US job market and consumer spending remain at great levels, according to the recently announced data. But there are also some troubling signals that could mean a worldwide recession in the coming years, according to the observers and experts.
Unemployment in the USA remains at historically low levels, according to the data published by the Labor Department. Claims for the state unemployment benefits also dropped, according to the data for the week ended August 17th. The decline was sharper than expected, which is also a good signal. Another optimistic factor is the Conference Board Index that increased by 0,5 % last month. According to this Index, the prosperity in the USA will most likely continue in the following months.
Unfortunately, there are also some more troubling stats that could signal coming recession, probably not in the coming months but years. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, also known as PMI, fell below 50, and not only in the USA but also in another important world's economic player – Germany. While in the USA it fell to just 49.9 percent, in Germany PMI is around 45 percent since the beginning of this year.
“August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth has continued to soften in the third quarter,” said Tim Moore, an economist at IHS Markit. Many manufacturers and businessmen are also worried about the US-China trade war.
There is also a very troubling signal, that historically, in the last decades always signalized the recession. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was below the 2-year yield. Historically it always happened before the coming recession.
There is also uncertainty over how the central banks, including FED, will behave in the coming months and years.
But as for now, great data from the labor market and consumer spending are putting all fears away, and the economy will surely stay great for the next months or longer.